Complexity & Market Evolution

MD22.1 The Emergence of Complex Organizational Forms in Local Health Care Markets James W. Begun, Roice D. Luke --- VA Commonwealth Univ., Dept. of Health Admin., PO Box 980203, Richmond, VA 23298-0203, (begun@gems.vcu.edu)

US health care markets are good examples of emerging complex¨ systems. A study of markets in 321 metropolitan statistical areas¨ examines their evolution from homogeneity, stability and simplicity¨ to a larger number and diversity of organizational forms. Market¨ size, region and horizontal integration launch markets into¨ different trajectories.

MD22.2 Collective Strategies in Fragmented Industries: Studying the Dynamics of Complex Systems Ari Ginsberg, Erik Reimer Larsen, Alessandro Lomi --- NYU, Stern Sch. of Bus., 44 W 4th St., New York, NY 10012-1126,

The emergence of collective strategies in fragmented industries¨ exemplifies self-organizing behavior. Interactions among autonomous¨ agents in a social field are governed by rules. A cellular automata¨ model shows how co-evolving firm strategies in a prisoner's¨ dilemma-type game interact with ecological macro-dynamics to¨ generate collective strategies.

MD22.3 A Hierarchy-Based Approach to Punctuated Equilibrium: An Alternative to Thermodynamic Self-Organization in Explaining Complexity Andrew Wollin --- Univ. of Queensland St. Lucia, Grad. Sch. of Mgmt., Brisbane Queensland, 4072 , Australia (a.wollin@qsm.uq.oz.au)

The emergence of complexity in social systems is often explained by¨ self-organization theory derived from thermodynamics. Punctuated¨ equilibrium processes provide an alternative explanation. Four case¨ studies show how new groups of firms with shared competitive¨ positions emerge from the interplay of structural inertia,¨ purposeful action and hierarchically-organized environments.

MD22.4 The Creation of Complexity: Staying One Step Ahead of the Game Janice A. Black, Gerard Farias --- MI State Univ., Dept. of Mgmt., Broad Coll. of Bus., E Lansing, MI 48824-1122,

The Austrian School of Economics emphasizes entrepreneurial activity¨ which creates disequilibrium in markets. Entrepreneurial firms¨ operate in markets of low complexity, but high equivocality. They¨ attract imitators whose attempts to reduce uncertainty generate¨ environmental complexity. Thus, firm-level attempts to reduce¨ uncertainty result in nonlinear, aperiodic, unpredictable¨ market-level behavior.