DA Arcade II

TD30.1 withdrawn 10/12: Paradox-Free Decision Modeling

• Fatma Mili; Oakland University; mili@oakland.edu

TD30.2 A Multi-Objective Decision Analysis Approach to Watershed Management

• Jason Merrick; Virginia Commonwealth University, Dept. of Stats Science & OR, 1015 West Main, PO Box 842014, Richmond, VA 23284; jrmerrick@mail1.vcu.edu
• Gregory S. Parnell; US Military Academy, Dept. of Systems Eng., West Point, NY 10996-1779; gparnell@usma.edu

In an NSF funded project, we integrated the views of diverse watershed stakeholders using multi-objective decision analysis. Each of the stakeholders' beliefs, strategies and goals were brought together under a watershed management framework to meet the overall objective of the project committee: to maximize the quality of the watershed.

TD30.3 Using a Bayesian Approach to Quantify Scale Compatibility Bias

• Richard M. Anderson; JHU, 3400 North Charles St., 313 Ames Hall, Baltimore, MD 21218; anderson@titan.me.jhu.edu
• Benjamin F. Hobbs; JHU, Sch. of Engineering, Geography & Environ. Eng., Baltimore, MD 21218; bhobbs@jhu.edu

We use a Bayesian method to compute probability distributions of attribute weights, assuming that the ratios produced by each respondent's judgments are subject to random error and scale compatibility bias. The bias is found to be significant and in the predicted direction. A heuristic is effective in eliminating the bias.

TD30.4 Exploiting Supply & Demand Curves for Decision Analysis

• Jeffrey Keisler; University of Massachusetts, 100 Morrissey Blvd., M/5-230, Boston, MA 02125; jeff.keisler@umb.edu

Business strategy decisions can be efficiently modeled using standard microeconomic structures combined with traditional DA. I will briefly discuss motivating examples from practice and specific modeling techniques and challenges.