Decision Making

SA12.1 'Short-Termism' in New Product Decisions

• William T. Ross, Jr.; Temple University, Sch. of Bus. & Mgmt., 1810 North 13th St., Philadelphia, PA 19122;
• Marjorie Adams; University of Virginia, Darden School, PO Box 6550, Charlottesville, VA 22906;

There is evidence that managers will overvalue short-term projects at the expense of longer-term options. We conduct 3 studies. First, we examine, in a new product situation, whether managers do indeed favor short-term projects. Secondly, we study whether managers who adopt a portfolio management approach to the management of projects are less likely to demonstrate this bias...

SA12.2 Predicting an Uncertain Future to Make a Decision Now: Heuristics & Biases in Assessing Extreme-Value Distributions

• Wes Hutchison; University of Pennsylvania, The Wharton School, Pittsburgh, PA 19104;
• Robert J. Meyer; University of Pennsylvania, The Wharton School, Mktg. Dept., Philadelphia, PA 19104-6371;

Central to many dynamic decisions faced by consumers and managers is an intuitive assessment of the expected value of an uncertain future choice. That choice will be the best option available at the time, and it can be represented as the maximum (or sometimes the minimum) of a finite number of draws from some distribution...

SA12.3 Framing Effects of Market Structure in Judgments of Health Risk & Message Processing

• Lauren Block; NYU, 44 West 4th St., New York, NY 10012;
• Geeta Menon; NYU, Stern Sch. of Business, 44 West 4th St., Rm. 8-94, New York, NY 10012;

We examine the effects of risk-factor framing and the number of risk factors enumerated in an ad on people's perceptions of risk, attitudes and behavioral intentions toward hepatitis C testing. Results from two studies demonstrate the interactive effects of risk type and number of risk factors on health persuasion.

SA12.4 Coping with Bad Choices: Attribute Value & Emotional Tradeoff Difficulty

• Mary Frances Luce; University of Pennsylvania, The Wharton Sch., Philadelphia, PA 19104;
• James R. Bettman; Duke University, Fuqua School of Bus., Box 90120, Durham, NC 27708-0120;
• John W. Payne; Duke University, Fuqua School of Bus., Durham, NC 27706;

We investigate the hypothesis that decision-makers will be motivated to cope with the increasing threat presented by low attribute values by maximizing the relevant attribute in choice. We report 2 studies that use choice patterns and emotion ratings to isolate this coping behavior, controlling for several additional sources of influence on choice (e.g., influence associated with attribute importance weights).