AIDS Modeling I

SA17.1 Modeling the HIV/AIDS Epidemic via Life Tables Giuseppe Schinaia, Gianpaolo S. Tomba --- Univ. of Rome La Sapienza, Dept. of Geoecon. & Stats., Via Castro Laurenziano 9, Rome, 00161 , Italy (scchinaia@scec.eco.uniromal.it)

This simulation model of the HIV/AIDS epidemic uses life tables¨ estimated from cohort studies conducted on seropositive and¨ AIDS-diagnosed individuals. It allows for non-Markov staging of HIV¨ progression to AIDS; age at diagnosis and first opportunistic¨ infection observed are used as covariates to estimate the sojourn¨ time in each compartment.

SA17.2 Couples-Based Surveillance of STDs using Social Network & Transmission System Analyses James S. Koopman --- Univ. of MI, Dept. of Epidemiology, 109 Observatory St., Ann Arbor, MI 48102-2029, (jkoopman@sph.umich.edu)

Current STD surveillance methods cannot define the importance for¨ infection transmission dynamics of couples-based partnerships in¨ different subgroups/social settings and cannot monitor the fraction¨ of infections detected and treated in different subgroups/social¨ settings. Partner and partnership characteristics on partners who¨ cannot be located provide crucial information relevant to these¨ issues...

SA17.3 Implicit Valuation of a Blood Exclusion Decision Edward H. Kaplan --- Yale Univ., Sch. of Mgmt., Dept. of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06520-8200, (edward.kaplan@yale.edu)

We examine Israel's decision to exclude blood donations from¨ Ethiopian immigrants. We report a model for determining the¨ probability that an antibody negative donation is potentially¨ infectious and estimate this risk for Ethiopian and non-Ethiopian¨ Israelis using the best available data. Considering the mix of the 2¨ donor pools, we estimate the expected reduction in infectious¨ donations due to exclusion...