The Bullwhip Effect

MA05.1 Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain with Correlated Demand Processes Jennifer K. Ryan, David Simchi-Levi, Y. Frank Chen --- Purdue Univ., Sch. of IE, W Lafayette, IN 47907 , (jkryan@ecn.purdue.edu)

An important observation in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect suggests that demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain. In this paper we analyze the increase in variability in supply chains in which retailers face demands which are serially correlated, i.e., which are not independent from period to period.

MA05.2 Supply Chain Stability: Conditions for the Propagation of the Bullwhip Effect Manuel Pedro Baganha, Morris A. Cohen --- Univ. de Lisboa, Fac. Economia, Rua Marques De Fronteira 20, Lisboa, 1070 , Portugal (mbaganha@feunix.fe.unl.pt)

Market demand information is distorted by ordering decisions of material managers at each stage of the supply chain. We analyze the impact of batch size, leadtime and market demand variance on this 'bullwhip' effect. Results are based on a comprehensive simulation study of a stochastic multi-echelon supply chain model.

MA05.3 The Bullwhip Effect in Personal Computer Supply Chains Hirofumi Matsuo, Nikhil T. Jain --- Univ. of TX, Grad. Sch. of Bus., Dept. of MSIS, Austin, TX 78712-1175, (matsuoh@mail.utexas.edu)

The demand of personal computers is characterized by life cycle curves. The challenge for manufacturers and retailers is to meet the peak demand and not to leave obsolescence inventory at the end of the cycle. This talk presents the mechanism and financial impact of the bullwhip effect across personal computer supply chains.

MA05.4 An Experimental Investigation of the Bullwhip Effect Rachel Croson, Karen L. Donohue --- Univ. of PA, 1322 SH-DH, Dept. of OPIM, Wharton School of Bus., Philadelphia, PA 19104-6366, (crosonr@opim.wharton.upenn.edu)

We report the results of an experimental study measuring how the institutional design of a supply chain impacts the magnitude and timing of the bullwhip effect in a multi-echelon system. In particular, we examine the empirical effects of individual incentives as well as various types of information access (e.g., consumer demand, chain inventory, etc.).