Government and Military Track 16, Government and Military – Tuesday
9:10am-10:00am
Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change Gerald G. Brown, PhD, Distinguished Professor of Operations Research, Naval Postgraduate School Co-authors: Anthony Cox, Cox Associates; Gregory Parnell, US Military Academy; Stephen Pollock, University of Michigan; Alan Washburn, Naval Postgraduate School; Alyson Wilson, Iowa State University
Brown and his co-authors contributed to a National Research Council (NRC) report, released in September 2008, that evaluates the 2006 Department of Homeland Security Bioterror Risk Assessment (BTRA), conducted by order of the President. BTRA is specifically intended to address the threats highlighted by the recently-released Graham-Talent report, presenting the findings of the Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, that include the conclusion that a bioterror attack on the US is likely by 2013. However, Brown and his group found that the BTRA has many shortcomings. Among these was the mis-use of probabilistic risk analysis to represent the possible behavior of intelligent adversaries. In this session, Brown will recount the NRC report's findings, using materials previously presented to DHS, the Senate, House and White House.
10:30am-11:20am
The Role of Private Industry in Homeland Security Public Policy: Analysis of Impacts to Value Chains of Man-Made and Natural Disasters Mark A. Ehlen, PhD, Chief Economist, NISAC/Sandia, Sandia National Laboratories
Since 9/11, the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center, part of the US Department of Homeland Security, has conducted over 100 detailed studies of the economic impacts of man-made and natural disasters. While early on these studies focused on impacts to the nation as a single entity, they increasingly focus on the regional, shorter-term impacts to critical economic sub-sectors and ultimately the collections of US companies themselves. Through a series of specific studies about the chemical sector and the manufactured food sector, and direct collaboration with US companies on value chain analysis, NISAC has new insights on the role of private industry in helping to formulate and be part of execution of federal homeland security policy. This presentation will review the primary findings from a key set of economic impact analysis, including the two-year NISAC Pandemic Influenza Study, pre- and post-landfall analyses of the economic impacts of Hurricane Katrina, early analysis of impacts of a New Madrid Seismic Zone earthquake, and other central studies. The focus of the presentation will be on the impacts of disasters on individual companies, their supply chains, their value chains, and the broader infrastructure and economic sectors on which they rely. Using examples from large-scale value chain simulations and other analyses, Ehlen will cover to a lesser extent the macroeconomic (aggregate) impacts and focus more on the microeconomic (individual-firm) and mesoeconomic (value chain markets and distribution) impacts, implications for potential private-industry policy options, and for federal policy options.
11:30am-12:20pm
Applying Crime Analysis Techniques to Forecast Insurgent Attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan Joseph Mlakar, MS, Deputy Branch Head/ Senior Analysis, Operations Analysis Division, United States Marine Corps
Insurgent activity in Iraq and Afghanistan more closely resembles serial crime than traditional military operations. The analysis of serial criminal activity centers around one fundamental concept: there is no truly random behavior. A criminal cannot fully randomize his attacks – he is human and uses a logical decision model to make choices. Mlakar will describe how the United States Marine Corps applies crime analysis techniques to reconstruct insurgent decision models and forecast the location and timing of insurgent attacks. He will describe how to identify series of attacks that are linked to the same insurgent group. He will then explain how to analyze each series to identify patterns in time of day, day of week, time between events, distance between events, and spatial movement pattern. Specifically, Mlakar will introduce several effective spatial and temporal analysis techniques: tempograms, temporal topologies, aoristic analysis, lag variograms, event sequencing and animation, and space-time trajectories.
3:10pm-4:00pm
Using Ontology Building and Analysis Tools for Modeling in Ground Soldier Combat Simulations: The Materiel Task Related Encumbrance Ontology Daniel O. Rice, PhD, Senior Scientist, Technology Solutions Experts
Traditional techniques for designing combat simulation models include engineering, physics and statistical models. These methods result in deconstructing the Soldier system leading to a fundamental dilemma, an incomplete model of Soldier interactions with materiel, environment and task performance. The problem is that “the disembodied nature of predominant theory…is set against the war fighter’s needs” giving decision-makers “an incomplete picture of the soldier.” (Morrison et al., 2003) This presentation will introduce the audience to several key ontology-driven modeling concepts including:
Advances in ontology-driven modeling tools,
Using ontology-driven modeling for developing methodologies for simulation and analysis,
Examples of ontology-driven modeling,
The MATRE ontology and methodology for representing Soldier materiel encumbrances in the Infantry Warrior Simulation (IWARS),
Using ontology-driven modeling, simulation and analysis for making equipment acquisition decisions to improve Soldier task performance.
Presentations on Government & Military in Other Tracks Track 13, Service Systems – Tuesday
11:30am-12:20pm
The New Federal Emergency Management Agency: Increasing Response Effectiveness and Scalability as the National Logistics Coordinator Leanne Viera, PhD, Partner, IBM Global Business Services
The US Federal Emergency Management Agency exists to reduce the loss of life and property and protect the nation from all hazards—including natural disasters, acts of terrorism and other man-made disasters—by leading and supporting the country in a risk-based, comprehensive emergency management system of preparedness, protection, response, recovery and mitigation. While its mission is constant, FEMA faces a perpetually uncertain and evolving strategic environment and is continuously transforming into a more effective organization with improved readiness and response capabilities as the National Logistics Coordinator. This presentation, prepared by Mark Snyder of FEMA and Leanne Viera, will present a candid look at some of the challenges that FEMA Logistics has faced, lessons learned and successes earned along their ongoing transformative journey. Key topics include:
• Predicting and modeling demand in an uncertain environment,
• Strengthening end-to-end commodity supply chains,
• Optimizing logistics across the disaster response supply chain.
Co-author: Mark S. Snyder, Director of Transformation & Initiative, Logistics Management Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency
