Technical Program

Keynote & Plenary Presentations

Sunday, October 25

Morse Lecture Plenary, 10:00 - 11:00am
Technology-Enabled OR Education: What it may do for Professors & Practitioners, Richard C. Larson, MIT

Abstract: Will the WWW create superstar OR professors? Will learners in several continents take courses all at the same time from the same professor? Will the new learning technologies allow OR to get back to its empirical roots by helping to get students off campus and into the field?

The 1990's have given us unprecedented growth in technologies related to learning. In particular, the WWW is hosting rich learning communities for students and scholars in numerous disciplines. Building from the author's 3-year experience as Director of MIT's New Center for Advanced Educational Services, CAES, we focus on OR and technology-enabled learning. We review current examples of professors teaching and students learning OR and related disciplines in new technology-enabled ways. We revisit the meanings of collaborative research, field work and data collection, visualization of algorithms and problem formulation. Finally, we speculate, building from current trends, on how the OR student will learn and how the OR professor will teach OR in the year 2015. Speculative answers to these questions will be given along the way.

Biography: Richard C. Larson received his PhD from MIT where he is Professor of Electrical Engineering and Director of CAES, the Center for Advanced Educational Services. Dr. Larson has initiated a number of major experiments in technology-enabled learning, the results of which will be published in the coming years. This year, he is giving major presentations on technology-enabled education at the University of Connecticut, University of Massachusetts at Lowell, and as a Philip M. Morse distinguished lecturer at the INFORMS meeting in Seattle.

Prior to CAES, Dr. Larson served as CoDirector of the MIT Operations Research Center (over 15 total years in that post). He is co-author of Urban Operations Research, (Prentice Hall 1981). He is author, co-author or editor of five other books and author of over 70 scientific articles, primarily in the fields of emergency response systems, technology-enabled education, queueing and logistics. His first book, Urban Police Patrol Analysis, (MIT Press 1972) was awarded the Lanchester Prize from ORSA. In 1993-4, he served as President of ORSA. He is internationally known for his work in applied OR and is a member of the National Academy of Engineering. Dr. Larson has served as consultant to many organizations, including American Airlines, Coca-Cola, Johnson Controls, EDS, United Artists Cinemas, Union Carbide Corp., Rand Corp., the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Science and the US Department of Justice.

Edelman Plenary Address, 11:00am - 12noon
Use of OR Systems in the Chilean Forest Industries, Andres Weintraub, Rafael Epstein, Ramiro Morales, University of Chile; Jorge Seron, Bosques Arauco

Abstract: The 1998 Franz Edelman Award for Achievement in Operations Research and the Management Sciences has been awarded to Bosques Arauco S.A., which represents a consortium of 5 Chilean timber companies. By utilizing OR, Bosques Arauco developed tools that enabled them to improve efficiency while having a positive impact on workers' lives and the ecology of their forest plantations.

Timber is Chile's second largest industry. Bosques Arauco's consortium partner firms are Forestal Arauco, Forestal Mininco, Forestal Bío-Bío and Forestal Millalemu. The impact of these systems has been organizational and financial, with Bosques Arauco reporting a total saving of $5 million a year over a total annual timber production of $140 million. Since the implementation of the technology in 1989, the 5 major firms report minimum annual savings of $17 million. Equally impressive, those units impacted by the work have reported up to 25% savings in operational costs.

The Chilean consortium developed 5 different systems designed by a team from the University of Chile. The systems include a daily truck scheduling system (ASICAM); a short term harvesting system (OPTICORT); a harvesting equipment and access road location optimization system (PLANEX); a medium-range planning tool (OPTIMED); and a long-term strategic planning tool (MEDFOR).

Monday, October 26

Operational Research Society Plenary, 9:45 - 10:45am
Operations Research Trajectories: The Anglo-American Experience, 1940-1970, Maurice Kirby, University of Lancaster, UK

Abstract: This presentation, derived from the author's commissioned history of operations research in the UK, highlights the interrelationships between the development of OR in the UK and the US in the period to 1970. In focusing on the area bombing campaigns in World War II, we compare and contrast the wartime origins of OR in both countries with particular reference to the strategic capabilities of the USAAF and RAF Bomber Command. This serves as a precursor to analysis of the peacetime diffusion of OR, focusing on educational and methodological developments, and the take-up of OR in the corporate and public sectors. In these respects, there were major points of contrast between the 2 countries which can only be explained satisfactorily by reference to socio-economic developments reaching back into the 19th century.

Biography: Professor Maurice Kirby has taught business and economic history at the University of Lancaster since 1985. He previously taught at the Universities of Stirling and Nottingham and Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh. He currently holds the position of Provost of Colleges and Student Relations at Lancaster and will take up the headship of the Department of Economics in the University’s Management School at the end of this year.

Professor Kirby's research has focused on British business and economic history since 1750. He is currently writing a history of OR in the UK on behalf of the UK Operational Research Society. Several substantial articles charting the progress of his research have been published in recent issues of the Journal of the Operational Research Society in 1997 and 1998.

Information Technology Plenary, 11:45am - 12:45pm
Benefiting from Information Technology, Al Erisman, The Boeing Company

Abstract:Information technology is touching every corner of the processes and products of many businesses today. When technology is used to automate an old process it often adds cost and falls short of its goals, but when it is used to enable new ways of doing things it can transform both products and work often with tremendous benefit to the business. This close linkage to the business suggests that the major benefits of technology come when the technology development is done in close collaboration with business needs. I will discuss some recent and emerging technologies and show their impact in airplane design and support, and some ideas for getting technology out of the research environment and put to work.

Biography: Al Erisman is the Director of Applied Research & Technology, Information Science, The Boeing Company. His organization consists of 250 computer scientists, mathematicians and engineers. He has a PhD in Applied Mathematics from Iowa State University and has worked in various fields from mathematical algorithms to the application of IT to business transformation. He has published 2 books and numerous journal articles. In 1990, he was selected as one of 11 inaugural Technical Fellows of the Boeing Company. He has also taught at the university level in mathematics, engineering and business at the University of Washington, Seattle Pacific University, Seattle University and Carnegie Mellon University.

Tuesday, October 27

Optimization Plenary, 10:00 - 11:00am
Optimization & Equilibrium, Stephen M. Robinson, University of Wisconsin

Equilibrium has been a very useful modeling device in many areas, including physical science as well as economics, logistics and other fields. Further, this idea has had a close connection with optimization: optimization can furnish good models for some (but not all) equilibrium problems; the tools and methods of optimization have contributed much to our ability to solve equilibrium problems, while the analysis and solution of those problems have, in turn, stimulated the development of new methods in optimization.

We outline several kinds of equilibrium situations useful in applications, showing some ways of modeling these and of analyzing and solving the resulting models, using tools from optimization. In the process, we exhibit ways in which the applications drive further theoretical and computational development. Finally, we look at areas where further research advances would help us to deal more effectively with practical problems.

Biography: Stephen M. Robinson is a Professor of Industrial Engineering & Computer Sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he has been on the faculty since 1972. He has held administrative appointments as Chair of the Department of Industrial Engineering and as Assistant Director of the Mathematics Research Center. His research specialty is in mathematical programming. He has published 70 scientific research papers and has directed numerous funded research projects at the University. His research accomplishments have been recognized with the award of the honorary doctor's degree from the University of Zurich, Switzerland and of the George B. Dantzig Prize of the Mathematical Programming Society and the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

In addition to research, Robinson has been heavily involved in professional and public service. He has been an elected member of the councils of ORSA, now INFORMS, and of the Mathematical Programming Society, an editor of several scientific journals and has served on numerous governmental and professional advisory committees. He is an Overseer of Simon's Rock College (Great Barrington, Massachusetts) and is a former Trustee of the Village of Shorewood Hills, Wisconsin.

Omega Rho Distinguished Lecture Plenary, 11:00am - 12noon
Sequencing the Genome: A New Application Domain for the Mathematics of Operations Research, Richard M. Karp, University of Washington

Abstract: The hereditary information that each of us passes to his offspring is encoded as genes within DNA molecules. A DNA molecule can be viewed as a long string of symbols from the alphabet {A,C,T,G}, and the genes can be viewed as programs that direct the production of proteins, which in turn control chemical processes within the cells. The total content of these molecules within an organism is referred to as a genome. The Human Genome Project is dedicated to determining and interpreting the sequence of the human genome. The genomes of a growing number of other species have already been sequenced. Predicting the performance of different strategies for sequencing a genome requires stochastic models. We present one such model and describe its analysis using renewal theory.

The problem of sequencing a genome leads to combinatorial problems of the following kind: a large number of fragments of an unknown sequence x are given; the relative positions of these fragments within the sequence are unknown but partial, noisy information about the sequence of each fragment can be derived experimentally. Which of the available experiments shall we perform, and how shall we combine the results of the experiments to determine the positions of these fragments within the sequence x? This problem comes in many different forms, each of which leads to NP-hard combinatorial problems of the type often encountered in operations research applications. An important difference, however, is that our goal is not to find an optimal solution according to some objective function, but rather to determine the solution that nature has selected.

Biography: Richard M. Karp was born in Boston, Massachusetts in 1935 and was educated at the Boston Latin School and Harvard University, where he received his PhD in Applied Mathematics in 1959. From 1959 to 1968, he was a member of the Mathematical Sciences Department at the IBM T.J. Watson Research Center. From 1968 to 1994, he was a Professor of Computer Science, Mathematics & OR at the University of California, Berkeley. From 1988 to 1995, he was also associated with the International Computer Science Institute in Berkeley. In 1995, he became a Professor of Computer Science & Engineering and an Adjunct Professor of Molecular Biotechnology at the University of Washington.

Karp has received the US National Medal of Science, the Turing Award (ACM), the Harvey Prize (Technion), the Fulkerson Prize (AMS and Math Programming Society), the von Neumann Theory Prize (ORSA/TIMS), the Lanchester Prize (ORSA), the von Neumann Lectureship (SIAM) and the Distinguished Teaching Award (Berkeley). He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering and the American Philosophical Society, as well as a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. He holds 4 honorary degrees.

Plant Tours

Monday, October 26

Boeing Spares Distribution Center $15

The Boeing Commercial Airplane Spares Distribution Center is the central location for shipping parts to meet orders of airlines and it serves as the main depot for replenishing inventories of regional distribution centers in the US, Europe and Asia. It incorporates an automated conveyor system, computer activated carousels and bin rows in high bay areas. Functions include receiving, quality assurance, packaging engineering, manufacturing support, container fabrication and shipping. Typically, over one million spare parts issues and shipments are handled per year, to approximately 700 customers world wide. Researchers and practitioners involved in warehousing, materials management or inventory would be interested in visiting this modern and highly automated facility. Please do not bring cameras, as The Boeing Company does not permit still photos or video cameras on company property. Cameras will be checked with security at the entrance.

The bus will leave from the Sheraton Seattle Hotel at 8:30am and will return at approximately at 12noon.

Tuesday, October 27

Port of Tacoma $15

The Port of Tacoma is one of the fastest growing ports in the US. Strategically located in Puget Sound, the port offers efficient connections to sea, rail, highway and air transportation networks and enjoys strong international trade ties with nations on the Pacific Rim and around the world. The Port of Tacoma is the sixth largest container port in North America and ranks in the top 25 for worldwide container trade. It has proven itself an ideal import/export distribution center and a gateway to both international and domestic destinations.

This is a bus tour of businesses and operations of the port. There are literally hundreds of businesses in the port; major industries include container shippers, automotive importers and forest products exporters. Visit http://portoftacoma.com.

The bus will leave from the Sheraton Seattle Hotel at 8:30am and will return at approximately at 12noon.

Microsoft Museum $15

Founded in 1975, Microsoft is the worldwide leader in software for personal computers. The company offers a wide range of products and services for business and personal use, each designed with the mission of making it easier and more enjoyable for people to take advantage of the full power of personal computing every day.

The Microsoft Museum contains hands-on exhibits about the history, vision, culture and technology of Microsoft. Visit http://www.microsoft.com/museum.

The bus will leave from the Sheraton Seattle Hotel at 1:00pm and will return at approximately 4:00pm.

Software Demonstrations

Monday, October 26 and Tuesday, October 27
Convention Center Room 603

Teacher Program

Monday, October 26, 8:00am to 4:15pm
Sheraton East Ballroom B

Tutorials

SC03 Using Technology in Instruction
Chair: James R. Coakley, Oregon State University

Speaker: David R. Sullivan, Oregon State University
This tutorial shares a collection of tips and tricks that apply information technology to improve both teaching and administration in the classroom environment. We assume that students are given network storage areas and e-mail accounts. Given this environment, the tutorial shows how to harvest student assignments automatically, generate "personalized" e-mail status reports, conduct peer-review exercises of student assignments, prepare pictorial class lists and coordinate all these activities with a spreadsheet workbook that works like a central command post for class activities.

SC31 Technological Forecasting
Chair: Dundar F. Kocaoglu, University of Portland

Speaker: Harold Linstone, Portland State University
This survey of the forecasting tools will include trend extrapolation, growth curves, cycles, invariance, technological substitution, precursors, technological progress functions, Delphi, needs analysis, relevance trees and scenarios. The problem of bias and other sources of error will be examined. In its wider societal context, technology assessment and cross-impact analysis, as well as risk analysis, will be illustrated. The overarching roles of information technology and biotechnology will be considered. Finally, attention will be drawn to the important implications of recent work in complexity science for forecasting.

SD03 Implementing The Global Classroom: Science & Technology Commercialization
Chair: Pedro Conceicao, Instituto Superior Tecnico

Speakers: David V. Gibson, Chris Stiles, University of Texas; Manuel Heitor, Instituto Superior Tecnico
Since January 1996, the IC2 Institute, UT-Austin has used 2-way video to offer an innovative 1-year MS Degree Program in Science and Technology Commercialization, taught simultaneously in Austin and the Washington, DC area. In January 1998, IC2 partnered with IST to offer this program in Lisbon, Portugal and in 1999, the objective is to bring the program to Moscow through a partnership with the Academy of National Economy, Russian Federation. In this program, students work on cross-functional and geographically dispersed teams to globally source technology, talent, capital, know-how and markets. The program includes the leveraging of partnerships built through IC2's Global Networked Entrepreneurship Initiative. We describe challenges and lessons learned from the implementation of this global network and classroom.

SD07 Lean Supply Chain Management
Chair: William Flannery, University of Texas;

Speakers: Jeffrey Liker, University of Michigan, Dann Engels
Creating a total value chain that emphasizes flexibility, efficiency and order to delivery is a major challenge facing US manufacturing today. One proven system being adopted broadly throughout auto and other industries is lean manufacturing, exemplified in the Toyota Production System, TPS. But TPS as applied by its orthodox founders at Toyota assumes a relatively stable final assembly schedule, limited variety of end products and minimal use of information technology. We will identify approaches to lean supply chain management, organizationally and technically, to achieve time-based competition.

SD31 The Metrics of Intersector Technology Cooperation
Chair: John E. Hebert, University of Akron

Speaker: Eliezer Geisler, University of Wisconsin
Industry, university and government collaborations for technology and technology management will be discussed. Interactions between industrial research labs and academic institutions will be explored. Cases will be presented as examples of successful and unsuccessful approaches. Methods and measures used in the field will be explained. Conclusions will be drawn on where we should be going from here.

SE03 Using Commercial Software & Experiential Learning to Teach the First Management Science Course
Chair: Glenn B. Dietrich, University of Texas

Speakers: Matthew Liberatore, Robert Nydick, Villanova University
We offer a proven alternative to spreadsheets that synthesizes management science modeling, commercial software and experiential learning. We illustrate how to apply our integrated approach to 3 modules: mathematical programming (linear, integer, non-linear); decision analysis (primarily AHP); and simulation (primarily discrete event), using LINGO, Expert Choice and Extend, respectively. We share lessons learned regarding the development of successful student projects that have reached varying stages of implementation. We believe that our approach leads to a paradigm shift: the focus changes from what could and would be done with management science to what students can and will do with management science. This tutorial will be of interest to anyone who wishes to empower ordinary students to produce extraordinary results.

SE31 Publishing Technology Management Research in IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management
Chair: David V. Gibson, University of Texas

Speakers: D. F. Kocaoglu, University of Portland, R. Balachandra, Northeastern University, F. Betz, A. K. Chakrabarti, NJIT, B. V. Dean, San Jose University, G. F. Farris, Rutgers University, C. Gaimon, Georgia Institute of Technology, J. K. Liker, University of Michigan
IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management is the refereed research journal in engineering and technology management published quarterly by IEEE since 1954. The journal covers research in the management of engineers, scientists and technical organizations; R&D and engineering projects; models and methodologies; quality, innovation, technology; manufacturing systems; information and knowledge; strategic and policy issues. Papers on strategic management of technology, research articles, papers focused on implementation research, technical management notes and book reviews are considered for publication. Special issues are developed to identify and support research in emerging areas. The editor-in-chief and the department editors of the journal will discuss the strategic direction of the journal, give insight into the review process and provide guidance to authors.

MA15 Semidefinite Programming: Applications, Duality & Interior-Point Methods
Chair: Paul Tseng, University of Washington

Speaker: Michael J. Todd, Cornell University
During the past 8 years there has been a substantial increase in research in semidefinite programming, which is concerned with optimizing a linear function of a symmetric matrix subject to linear equality constraints and the requirement that the matrix be positive semidefinite. This interest has been partly due to the modeling power of this class of problems, but has been bolstered by our recent ability to solve moderately large instances using interior-point methods. We will discuss applications of semidefinite programming to eigenvalue optimization, relaxations of combinatorial optimization problems and control theory; duality theory for semidefinite programming and interior-point methods for solving such problems.

MA19 Turning Crowds into Teams by Design: Problem Solving Using the Value Methodology
Chair: Marlo Stebner, The Boeing Company

Speaker: Henry Ball, Boeing ISDS
Solving complex problems using the VM is a proven practice. We will introduce the history and theory of VM, the sequential steps used in the VM "job plan," the selection of the VM team and identify several of the commonly used "tools" employed in value studies.

MC15 Some Applications of Semidefinite Programming to Combinatorial Optimization
Chair: Jim Orlin, MIT

Speaker: David Williamson, IBM I will review applications of semidefinite programming to problems in combinatorial optimization. I will review some of the first uses of semidefinite programming in combinatorial optimization, such as Lovasz's theta function, then turn to its recent uses in approximation algorithms. An approximation algorithm is an algorithm which runs in polynomial time and is guaranteed to find a solution whose value is within a given factor of the value of an optimal solution. Semidefinite programming has been used to find significantly improved approximation algorithms (in terms of nearness to optimality) for the maximum cut, maximum satisfiability and graph coloring problems, as well as others.

MC19 An Introduction to the Theory of Constraints
Chair: Steven Dightman, The Boeing Company

Speaker: Chuck Gauthier
Theory of constraints, a systems approach to continuous improvement to make more money now and in the future - WHAT to change, what to change TO and HOW to change - consists of logical thinking (5 focusing steps, thinking processes), logistics (drum-buffer-rope, critical chain), performance measurements (throughput, inventory, operating expense).

MD15 LGO - A Program System for Continuous/ Lipschitz Global Optimization
Chair: Zelda Zabinsky, University of Washington

Speaker: Janos D. Pinter, Dalhousie University/Pinter Consulting Services
GO is aimed at finding the best solution of non-linear decision models, in the presence of multiple local solutions. The program system LGO serves to solve GO problems under very general (continuity or Lipschitz) structural assumptions. Hence, it is particularly suitable to solve GO problems related to "black box" system models, or to models supported by limited, difficult-to-use analytical information. Problem formulations can be submitted to LGO by simply providing the functions describing the problem: the functions can be given explicitly, in object code program form, or even by executable programs. LGO integrates several robust and efficient, derivative-free global and local scope solvers which can be applied in fully automatic or interactive modes. LGO can be used on various PC and work-station platforms, in professional Fortran 77 and 90 environments. The program system is accompanied by a User's Guide. The PC version is directly integrated under a menu interface, assisting rapid prototyping and application. Similar development for work-stations, and/or integration with other development environments is also possible. During the presentation, the full functionality of the LGO system will be demonstrated.

ME15 Using the Integral Simplex Algorithm for Finding Pseudo Polynomial Algorithms for Some NP Complete Problems
Chair: Robert D. Carr, Sandia National Labs.

Speaker: Gerald L. Thompson, Carnegie Mellon University
The author's recently announced integral simplex method was originally developed to solve set partitioning problems and was shown to have pseudo-polyomial time computational complexity. The method begins with the initial tableau of the problem and makes pivots on ones until no more such pivots can be found. If the local optimum found is also a global optimum, the process stops. Otherwise, a global integral simplex method creates and solves the problems in a search tree consisting of a polynomial number of subproblems, subproblems of subproblems, etc. The optimal solution to one of these problems is shown to be optimal for the original problem. Since its inception the author has extended the integral simplex method to also be a solution algorithm for solving set packing, set covering, matching and other NP complete problems. The author will first cover the original method and some variants, then explain its extensions to other problems.

TA15 Complementarity Problems: Applications, Modeling and Solution
Chair: Richard W. Cottle, Stanford University

Speaker: Michael C. Ferris, University of Washington
Complementarity problems arise naturally in many engineering, economic and financial applications. Interesting examples include carbon taxation policies, tolling procedures in a congested traffic network, option pricing and predicting structure failure. We will describe the mixed complementarity format and give simple examples of how such applications fit into this format. Extensions of modeling languages such as AMPL and GAMS that allow very large mixed complementarity problems to be easily formulated and solved will be outlined. A description of various state-of-the-art solvers for complementarity problems, including the PATH solver, will be given along with details of available software to interface to such solvers. Recent extensions of the modeling formats to allow mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints to be generated will be mentioned, together with tools to allow algorithmic design in MATLAB.

TC15 Approximation Algorithms via Linear Programming
Chair: Leslie Hall, JHU

Speaker: David Shmoys, Cornell University
LP has been the basis for solving hard combinatorial optimization problems for over 40 years. One of the oldest strategies for finding a good solution is as follows: formulate the problem as an integer problem; find an optimal solution to its LP relaxation, and round it to an integer solution that is (hopefully) nearly as good and nearly as feasible. There has been substantial recent progress in the design and analysis of approximation algorithms based on this philosophy. We shall explain several of these results for a variety of problems, including examples from scheduling and facility location.

TD15 Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery in Databases I
Chair: Kristin Bennett, RPI

Speakers: Usama Fayyad, Microsoft Research Evangelos Simoudis, IBM
We present a basic tutorial of this new and emerging area and emphasize relations to constituent communities including statistics, databases, pattern recognition, learning and visualization. The tutorial provides a basic overview of the KDD process for extracting knowledge from databases and covers the basics of each step in the process including: data warehousing, selection and cleaning, data transformation, data mining, evaluation and visualization. We also cover a sampling of successful applications and outline challenges and issues to be addressed.

TE15 Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery in Databases II
Chair: Kristin Bennett, RPI

Speakers: Usama Fayyad, Microsoft Research Evangelos Simoudis, IBM
We present a basic tutorial of this new and emerging area and emphasize relations to constituent communities including statistics, databases, pattern recognition, learning, and visualization. The tutorial provides a basic overview of the KDD process for extracting knowledge from databases and covers the basics of each step in the process including: data warehousing, selection and cleaning, data transformation, data mining, evaluation and visualization. We also cover a sampling of successful applications and outline challenges and issues to be addressed.

Workshops

Theme: Teaching Management Science in Spreadsheets

Saturday, October 24, 1:00 - 5:00pm
Workshop I - Teaching Management Science in Spreadsheets: An Overview
Sam Savage, Stanford University

Synopsis: Although spreadsheets have limitations in large-scale OR/MS applications, they have rapidly become the standard for teaching OR/MS techniques. However, using spreadsheets to teach a traditional OR/MS course is analogous to laying a wheel on its side, loading luggage on it and dragging it behind a yak. This workshop will show how the interactive nature of the spreadsheet offers new opportunities to enliven and motivate the teaching of mathematical subjects. Topics covered include:

• pros & cons of spreadsheets
• Animatics - understanding mathematics through animation
• Object-oriented modeling
• analytical enhancements to Excel
• audio visual considerations for using spreadsheets in class

Sam Savage received his PhD in computer science from Yale University in 1973. After spending a year at General Motors Research laboratory, he joined the faculty of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, with which he has been affiliated since 1974. In 1985, he led the development of a software package that couples linear programming to Lotus 1-2-3? . This popular package, called What's Best!®, won PC Magazine's Technical Excellence Award. Dr. Savage is currently a Consulting Professor of Engineering Economic Systems & Operations Research at Stanford University. He also consults and lectures extensively with industry. Dr. Savage consults and lectures extensively within industry with clients including: Wells Fargo Bank, Hewlett-Packard, PG&E, Texaco and Shell. He was principal investigator of a recent Air Force SBIR project to integrate optimization into Lotus Improv. Current areas of interest include optimization under uncertainty and the integration of analytical techniques with OLAP database systems.

Sunday, October 25, 8:00am - 12:00noon
Workshop II - Marketing & Finance with Excel
Wayne Winston, Indiana University

Synopsis: We will give a detailed overview of some sophisticated applications of optimization and simulation to marketing and finance that can be easily be done with Excel or an Excel add-in. The following examples will be covered:

• Marketing Models
• Valuing a Customer
• Conjoint Simulator
• Non-Linear Pricing
• Product Bundling
• Finance Models
• Introduction to Risk Neutral Valuation
• Valuing European Options with Simulation
• Valuing Real Options with Simulation
• Analyzing Foreign Exchange Risk with Simulation
• Valuing American options with Binomial Trees
• Simulating Pro-Forma Statements

Wayne Winston has a bachelor's degree in math from MIT and a PhD in OR from Yale. He is Professor Decision Sciences at Indiana University where he has won the school-wide MBA teaching award 4 times. He is the author of over 20 refereed articles and best-selling texts. He has consulted for Eli Lilly, Bristol-Myers, GM, Coopers-Lybrand, Pine Grove Associates and NCR, is currently writing two books and is a two-time JEOPARDY! Champion.

Sunday, October 25, 1:00 - 5:00pm
Workshop III - Teaching Business Statistics with Excel
Peter C. Bell, University of Western Ontario

Synopsis: Participants in this workshop will be encouraged to try teaching the required business statistics course using Excel. Topics covered will include integrating Excel into the instruction of the introductory materials (data, graphs), descriptive statistics, estimation and regression which are generally encountered in the first course in Business Statistics.

Peter C. Bell earned BA and MA degrees from Oxford University and MBA and PhD degrees at the Graduate School of Business, the University of Chicago. He is a Professor of Management Science and Information Systems, and has served as Visiting Professor at the London Business School and as Chevron Distinguished Visiting Professor at Simon Fraser University. He is the author of six books and has published more than 50 articles in academic and business journals. He serves as Editor-in-Chief of International Transactions in Operational Research, as an Associate Editor of INFOR and a member of the Editorial Advisory Board of Omega. He serves as a consultant to corporations, hospitals, small businesses, charities and government agencies in the areas of operations and/or computer systems.

Sunday, October 25, 1:00 -5:00pm
Workshop IV - Teaching Decision Analysis Using Spreadsheets
Michael R. Middleton, University of San Francisco

Synopsis: This workshop will discuss modeling concepts and decision analysis techniques that can be included in the introductory MS course. We will focus on various kinds of sensitivity analysis for providing insight and determining which assumptions are critical in what-if financial planning models. Specific tools include data tables, spider charts and tornado diagrams, each of which can help us decide whether additional modeling is warranted. In decision tree models for sequential decision problems, we examine payoff distributions for strategies (risk profiles), perform sensitivity analysis of risk attitude and compute expected value of perfect information. To model problems involving trade-offs among conflicting objectives, we will use the swing weighting approach in a spreadsheet to determine a multiattribute utility function. We will also discuss teaching methods and ways to help students become active modelers of messy business decision problems. Attendees will receive a diskette with sample files and 3 Excel add-ins for facilitating decision analysis: TreePlan for decision trees, SensIt for sensitivity analysis and RiskSim for Monte Carlo simulation. Attendees with Excel on a laptop computer may use the add-ins and sample files during the workshop.

Michael R. Middleton received his PhD from the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, his MS in Operations Research from Stanford University, his MBA from the University of Iowa and his BS degree in Electrical Engineering from Iowa State University. He currently is with the University of San Francisco where he is involved in the disciplines of data analysis, decision modeling, management science, business statistics, decision analysis, statistical forecasting techniques, computer models for management, information systems, decision support systems, systems analysis and design and database management. He is affiliated with the Decision Sciences Institute, the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences as well as the American Statistical Association.