WELCOME & PHILIP MCCORD MORSE LECTURE Sunday, November 7 10:00am-10:50am Welcome Intelligence Operations Research The talk will address applications of operations research to intelligence problems in national security and counterterrorism. The phrase “intelligence operations research” can be interpreted in two different ways: as intelligence operations research, meaning studies to characterize and improve the operations of intelligence agencies themselves, and as intelligence operations research, meaning the application of operations research methods to specific substantive intelligence problems. After defining intelligence, Kaplan will review the intelligence production process (or the intelligence cycle) with reference to the intelligence community of the United States. He then considers the extent to which operations research has been deployed inside this intelligence community, and summarizes previous attempts to apply operations research methods to intelligence problems. He will close with some suggestions for future intelligence operations research studies.
KEYNOTE Indeval Develops a New Operating and Settlement System Using Operations Research Indeval, the Mexican Central Securities Depository for all financial securities, manages Dalí, the Securities Settlement System (SSS), which has as its core an O.R. engine. In 2005, Indeval, the Central Bank and ITAM started a project for the implementation of a safer, reliable and efficient SSS. Communication protocols, business rules and best market practices were revised, and a new settlement environment and solution was devised. Business Process Modeling Notation was used to redesign all business processes, and simulation to test the SSS. As a result, financial intermediaries save over US$ 150 million a year by not having to provide daily liquidity in the order of US$ 130 billion to settle over US$ 250 billion in daily securities transactions. However, the most important benefit of the implementation of O.R. in the new SSS is the enhancement and strengthening of the Mexican financial infrastructure. This could not have been accomplished without the novel O.R. application at the “heart” of the Mexican financial sector. The Franz Edelman Award for Achievement in Operations Research and the Management Sciences calls out, recognizes and rewards outstanding, high-impact applications of OR/MS. Each year, six to seven finalists compete in the “Super Bowl” of O.R. in practice. The 2010 finalists include the Delaware River Basin Commission, Deutsche Post DHL, New Brunswick Department of Transportation, Procter & Gamble and Sasol. In this keynote, the first-place Indeval team will reprise their winning presentation. KEYNOTE Climate and Energy Policy Analyses: Current Status and Future Directions The talk will give an overview of the current generation of energy and climate change policy analyses, and make suggestions for future work. The alternative techno-economic input assumptions, policy architectures and policy instruments used in these analyses in searching for best practices, policy insights, and directions for improvement will be reviewed. State, federal and global issues/analyses will be described and results summarized. Idealized policy architectures provide useful benchmarks and are relatively easy to analyze, but are not very realistic given current and likely future institutional constraints. Projecting the impacts of increased expenditures on energy R&D and energy efficiency programs continue to be among the most popular proposals, but they present analysts with rather significant challenges in terms of basic understanding and data availability. Current and possible future approaches to the most difficult of these modeling challenges will be highlighted. The Energy Modeling Forum, National Academy of Sciences, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as relevant state and US government studies, are used to illustrate key approaches and insights.
PLENARY Rethink, Re-engineer, Re-energize The energy systems that serve our needs today are an incredible set of interdependent, engineered systems that have enabled huge advances for mankind for over a century. We see a convergence of a number of significant forces and drivers that will cause a major redefinition of our energy systems. This redefinition will be very challenging, starting first with the challenge of understanding how the systems today operate and defining an adequate representation for analysis. The definition of the future systems is an enormous challenge of optimization over many variables: cost, reliable and secure supply, high quality supply, low environmental impact, reduced climatic impact, varying geographic distribution and many more. The creation of our desirable future systems will require the best of physics-based simulations, network modeling, economic optimization, competitive market dynamics analysis, and analysis of national and global social goods.
KEYNOTE Part of Our Energy Future Will Look Like the Past Climate issues, concerns about resource availability (peak oil) and evolving alternative energy technologies have created the illusion that we are moving substantially away from carbon based fuels as future energy sources. While advances in implementing “clean energy” technologies have been impressive and important, on a global scale transportation and electricity generation will remain dominantly dependent on fossil fuels for at least several decades. The challenge is developing cost-effective technologies that allow their use in ways compatible with our greenhouse gas reduction and energy efficiency aspirations. In this vein, continued heavy coal use would be most acceptable with workable carbon capture and sequestration systems. The flood of natural gas supplies, most notably from shale sources, reduces resource availability to a negligible issue and provides an opportunity for electricity generation, and perhaps transportation, to be fueled with much lower carbon dioxide emissions. Nuclear energy is emerging as a more acceptable alternative with growth most dependent on control of capital costs. Policy and economic incentives to make our continued dependence on carbon-based fuels and nuclear energy occur on a base of the cleanest, safest technologies and most efficient systems, can support both a healthy economy and a cleaner environment.
KEYNOTE Global Supply Chain Planning Over the past 50 years, the technology industry has revolutionized the
way we work and live. Every 10-15 years, the industry has ushered in a
new era that has fundamentally changed the competitive landscape and how
we interact with technology. In its 26 years of existence, Dell has
been a disruptive force in the industry. Dell changed the industry
with a powerful idea: combine direct customer relationships,
standards-based technology and a leading-edge supply chain to make
technology hardware more accessible to more people and organizations.
ORMS and Risk Management Failures: What are we doing wrong? The events contributing to the global financial crisis and the Gulf of Mexico oil spill appear to represent cataclysmic failures of risk management within some of the most technologically capable organizations. In retrospect, even the most basic OR analysis should have avoided these disasters and their enduring consequences. Why then did these calamities occur and what is ORMS's responsibility? This talk will focus on some of these events in detail and offer possible explanations for ORMS's failure to avert them. We will then consider potential resolutions of the underlying causes of these failures and implications for ORMS's future development in practice and academic research.
OMEGA RHO, the official Honor Society of INFORMS, was founded in 1976 to recognize superior scholarship and encourage leadership in operations research, management science, and related disciplines. The society has 39 active collegiate chapters, more than 5,000 student and faculty members and is a member of the Association of College Honor Societies. In addition to sponsoring OMEGA RHO Distinguished Lectures at INFORMS Annual and International meetings, OMEGA RHO provides financial support to the annual INFORMS Colloquium. Honorary Membership in OMEGA RHO is bestowed upon individuals who provide leadership and extraordinary support for the encouragement of operations research and management science through their professional activities. Prior to delivering the OMEGA RHO Distinguished Lecture, John R. Birge will be inducted as the 44th Honorary Member of OMEGA RHO. KEYNOTE Rethinking Risk Assessment and Management for Homeland Security and Defense The welfare of our society depends on effective assessment and management of risks to our most critical infrastructure systems. Currently fashionable probabilistic risk assessment estimates expected loss value, where the consequence of an “event” is measured in, e.g., economic replacement cost, or injuries or fatalities, as appropriate. Yet, recent examples – global financial crises, power failures, oil spills and floods – suggest we are better at building complex systems than we are at assessing potential damage from natural events or intentional actions. This presentation will describe how game theory and optimization can advise allocation of limited resources to mitigate worst-case disruptions; and how these techniques can be (and already are) used to enhance resilience of critical infrastructures and advise government, military, and private sector system operators.
KEYNOTE Ocean Container Transport: Making Global Supply Chain Management Effective As supply chains become more global, and as more operations are outsourcing and move offshore, ocean container transport now is a critical element of any such supply chain. In particular, due to the tightened security, increased congestion, and heightened pressure on energy usage and carbon emission, the immediate effect of transportation on supply chain has recently attracted much attention. Dr. Lee will first review the main characteristics of current ocean container supply chains and discuss some major trends that affect the operation of these supply chains. He will then present a number of problems and related research questions that have been understudied in the literature and yet appear to be challenging for both container shipping service providers and users. He will also suggest on how OR/MS can play in such an emerging topic.
KEYNOTE Small Computing for Operations Research Using Excel and VBA Operations Research is riding the wave of large (and fast) computing. Problems that were computationally impossible a few years ago are standard fare for the advanced computers and computer codes of today. This talk suggests the alternative of small (and slow) computing implemented by programs written in Visual Basic for Applications and executed in Microsoft Excel. In compensation for the loss of speed, the add-ins are free, use the familiar interface of Excel, are available for a wide range of OR models, combine data and analysis in the same workbook, are easy to use and are capable of solving challenging problems. A website (www.ormm.net) provides extensive instructions and download links for add-in files and demonstration workbooks. The student or practitioner can formulate and solve meaningful problems without the expense of stand-alone programs and sophisticated computers. People from throughout the world visit the site and use the add-ins.
KEYNOTE 2010 Daniel H. Wagner Prize Presentation |
Edward H. Kaplan has had his research reported on the front pages of the New York Times and the Jerusalem Post, editorialized in the Wall Street Journal, recognized by the New York Times Magazine's Year in Ideas, and discussed between the covers of other prominent news magazines. The author of more than 125 research articles, Kaplan received the Lanchester Prize and the Edelman Award, two top honors in the operations research field. An elected member of the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine of the US National Academies, he has twice received the Lady Davis Visiting Professorship at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he has investigated AIDS policy issues facing the State of Israel. Kaplan’s current research focuses on the application of operations research to problems in counterterrorism and homeland security. He serves on the National Research Council’s Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, is a member of the Intelligence Community Associates Program, and co-directs the Daniel Rose Technion-Yale Initiative in Homeland Security and Counterterror Operations Research.
John P. Weyant is also Director of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) and Deputy Director of the Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency at Stanford University. He is a Senior Fellow of the Precourt Institute for Energy and the Freeman-Spolgi Institute for International Studies at Stanford. His current research focuses on analysis of global climate change policy options, energy efficiency analysis, energy technology assessment and models for strategic planning. Weyant has been a convening lead author, lead author and review editor for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He has been active in the US debate on climate change policy through the Department of State, the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency. In California, he is a member of the California Air Resources Board’s Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee (ETAAC). Weyant was awarded the US Association for Energy Economics 2008 Adelmann-Frankel award for unique and innovative contributions to the field of energy economics. He was acknowledged in 2007 as a major contributor to the Nobel Peace prize awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in 2008 by Chairman Mary Nichols for contributions to California’s ETAAC report. 
Joan Woodard served in various roles of national service, with progressively greater responsibility for over 35 years, including 15 years in executive leadership. Her most recent role was the Deputy Laboratories Director for all laboratories activities in support of US military technology; proliferation prevention; energy science, resources, conservation, and infrastructure assurance; and homeland security. She currently serves on the Intelligence Science Board, and has served on the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board, vice-chairing a major study on energy; the Congressional Commission to Assess the Vulnerabilities of the US Infrastructure to EMP; and the National Academy Study on S&T for Countering Terrorism, resulting in the publication “Making the Nation Safer”, serving as a contributor and the editor of the energy chapter. Dr. Woodard holds a PhD in Mechanical Engineering (Thermal Sciences) from the University of California Berkeley; a MS in Engineering Economic Systems from Stanford University; and a BS in Applied Mathematics (with emphasis in computer science) from the Missouri University of Science & Technology (magna cum laude). She has been elected to the Phi Kappa Phi Honor Society.
Charles G. (Chip) Groat is also Director of the Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy, Associate Director of the Energy Institute, Director and Graduate Advisor of the Energy and Earth Resources Graduate Program, and Professor, LBJ School of Public Affairs at The University of Texas at Austin. He assumed these positions in June 2005 after serving six and a half years as Director of the US Geological Survey, having been appointed by President Clinton and retained by President Bush. Dr. Groat has been a member of the National Research Council Board on Earth Sciences and Resources and the Outer Continental Shelf Policy Board. He is a past President of the Association of American State Geologists and of the Energy Minerals Division and Division of Environmental Geosciences of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. He holds degrees in geology from the University of Massachusetts (MS) and The University of Texas at Austin (PhD). His current interests focus on advancing the role of science and engineering in shaping policy and informing decisions, and on ways to increase the integration of the science disciplines as a means of improving the understanding of complex resource and environmental systems.
John R. Birge is the Jerry W. and Carol Lee Levin Professor of Operations Management at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business. Previously, he was Dean of the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science and Professor of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences at Northwestern University. He also served as Professor and Chair of Industrial and Operations Engineering and established the financial engineering program at the University of Michigan. He is former President of INFORMS and former Editor-in-Chief of Mathematical Programming, Series B. He has received many honors and awards including the IIE Medallion Award, the INFORMS Fellows Award, the Harold W. Kuhn Prize, and the George E. Kimball Medal. Professor Birge's work considers the design and analysis of practical systems in which some outcomes are not completely known before decisions must be made. He has developed methods to determine optimal actions in these uncertain environments for applications such as asset and liability allocations, periodic scheduling of workers and machines, power and energy distribution, and allocation of public services. He received MS and PhD degrees from Stanford University in Operations Research and an A.B. in Mathematics from Princeton University.
Gerald G. Brown also serves as Executive Director of the Center for Infrastructure Defense at the Naval Postgraduate School, where he has taught and conducted research in optimization and optimization-based decision support since 1973, earning awards for both outstanding teaching and research. His military research has been applied by every uniformed service, in areas ranging from strategic nuclear targeting to capital planning. He has been awarded the Barchi, Rist, and Thomas prizes for military operations research, and been credited with guiding investments of more than a trillion dollars. He has designed and implemented decision support software used by the majority of the Fortune 50, in areas ranging from vehicle routing to supply chain optimization. His research appears in scores of open-literature publications and classified reports, some of which are seminal references. Brown is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, a recipient of the US Navy Distinguished Civilian Service Medal, an INFORMS Fellow, and a founding Director of Insight, Incorporated, the leading provider of strategic supply chain optimization tools to the private sector.
Chung-Yee Lee is the Founding and Current Director of the Logistics and Supply Chain Management Institute at the Hong Kong University of Science & Technology. He served as Department Head of Industrial Engineering and Logistics Management at HKUST for seven years. His search areas are in logistics and supply chain management, scheduling and inventory management. He has engaged in numerous research projects sponsored by industries in U.S. and Hong Kong, and has published more than 100 papers in refereed journals. According to an article in the Int. J. Prod. Eco. (2009), which looked at all papers published in the 20 core journals during last 50 years in the field of production and operations management, he was ranked number six among all researchers worldwide in h-index. Dr. Lee received a MS degree in Management Sciences from National Chiao-Tung University. He also received a MS degree in Industrial Engineering from Northwestern University (1980) and PhD degree in Operations Research from Yale University (1984). He is a Fellow of the Institute of Industrial Engineers.
Paul Jensen earned his PhD in Operations Research in Industrial Engineering at Johns Hopkins University in 1967. He joined the faculty at the University of Texas where he taught with the operations research program in mechanical engineering, retiring in 2003 as the Cullen Professor Emeritus. His first major book co-authored with J. Wesley Barnes, Network Flow Programming, received the 1980 Book of the Year Award from the Institute of Industrial Engineers. In 1983 and 1985 he authored a pioneer package of operations research programs for microcomputers, Microsolve/Operations Research. The Students' Guide to Operations Research was published in 1986. The book Operations Research Models and Methods coauthored with Jon Bard was published in 2003. Dr. Jensen was the Contributed Papers Chairman for two national INFORMS meetings and General Chair for the Dallas Texas meeting in 1997. He served a three-year term on the Council of the Operations Research Society of America. He served as Vice President for Meetings of INFORMS from 2001 through 2004 and is an INFORMS Fellow. Dr. Jensen was awarded the 2007 INFORMS Prize for the Teaching of ORMS Practice.