Founder and Chief Innovation Officer at Innovative Decisions, Inc
Dennis Buede is a founder of and Chief Innovation Officer at Innovative Decisions, Inc. He was a Professor at Stevens Institute of Technology and George Mason University. He has authored The Engineering Design of Systems: Models and Methods and authored or coauthored numerous professional books and papers. He is a practicing Decision Analyst, Bayesian probabilist and data scientist. He received his Ph.D. and M.S. from the Engineering-Economic Systems Department of Stanford University. He belongs to the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science, the Society of Decision Professionals, the Institute of Electronic and Electrical Engineers, and the International Council on Systems Engineering. He is a Fellow of INCOSE.
Track: Decision & Risk Analysis
Tuesday, April 16th, 10:30-11:20am
Can We Do Better than Garbage-In – Garbage-Out?
Can an analytics approach that receives poor quality (aggregated) data produce useful outputs, outputs that have low mean squared error and are calibrated? A team from IDI confronted this question as part of a research project with the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) to mitigate insider threats. Here insider threats are people, who are driven by rage, national loyalty, or profit to steal, destroy, sabotage data from an organization. This talk describes the motives and behaviors of insider threats and details of our multi-modeling solution, which includes data elicitation activities to address missing data (e.g., correlations). The modeling techniques used range from discrete event simulation to copulas to stochastic optimization for simulation populations, from random forests to support vector machines to naïve Bayesian networks to neural networks for down-selecting the potential threats.