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Jay Carini

Jay Carini

Jay Carini

Vice President within JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Jay Carini, a Vice President within JP Morgan Chase’s Operations Research and Data Science Center of Excellence (ORDS CoE), has over 15 years consulting and industry experience in Financial Services, Transportation, and Logistics. Jay is an operationally-oriented professional with an expertise for identifying business problems, opportunities, and solutions through modeling, statistics, data exploration, and analysis. His current focus at JPMC is providing analytics-based thought leadership and process modeling expertise to the internal call centers, manufacturing environments, and other back-office support centers. Through these engagements, he is developing and deploying Operations Research-based applications to support: business resiliency, strategic and tactical scheduling, resource optimization, and risk and controls.

Track: Risk Management & Predictive Analytics

Monday, April 15, 3:40–4:30pm

Dynamic Call Center Simulation at JPMorgan Chase: Reducing Disruptive Business Resiliency Testing

The JPMorgan Chase Operations Research and Data Science Center of Excellence (ORDS CoE) commenced a multi-year project to provide the internal Business Resiliency team with a discrete event simulation-based application to 1) Support strategic and tactical planning and 2) Reduce the number of required physical shutdown tests (which increase operational costs and negatively impact customer service). In the event of an outage, Business Resiliency seeks key insights about impacted locations:

  • What will happen to service level during an outage?
  • How will mitigation strategies impact service level (i.e. add headcount, reduce volume and/or processing time)?

The approach leverages discrete event simulation modeling to estimate the expected impacts to service level due to an outage. The dynamic design of the model, combined with an integrated user interface and dashboard, allows users to simulate any combination of 100+ call centers and/or 50+ locations, and to customize mitigation scenarios to compare with the “do-nothing” scenario.The presentation will highlight the following key components of the analytics, methodology, and considerations required to provide an end-to-end, data driven solution to the Business Resiliency team:

  • Development and validation of the simulation engine
  • Overview of underlying techniques required to support the simulation including:
      • Survival functions to model abandonment behavior
      • Fitting historical handle time data to probability distributions by call type and building a handle time function for use in model parameterization
      • Generating output statistics through bootstrapping
  • Overview of the Tableau-based dashboard used to broadly communicate required model insights to the business partners
  • Lessons learned through collaboration with internal IT teams, project managers, and the competing interests within the business to develop a viable solution
  • Next steps as ORDS leverages simulation and analytics to support Business Resiliency