Executive Director at ProbabilityManagement.org
Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to the communication and calculation of uncertainty. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, PG&E, and others, and he is joined on the board by Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics. Dr. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John WIley & Sons, 2009, 2012), and is an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. He received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University.
Track: Analytics in the Public Sector
Tuesday, April 16, 9:10–10:00am
Interactive Simulations in Support of Warfighters, Intel Analysts and Policy Makers
The Open SIPmath™ Standard from 501(c)(3) ProbabilityManagement.org allows simulations in any environment to be networked by communicating uncertainties as arrays of Monte Carlo realizations called SIPs. This presentation will show how to roll up operational risk in native Excel or other computer environments that support arrays. This sort of analysis is particularly applicable to infrastructure such as roads, bridges, communications networks, pipelines etc. Examples will include portfolios of mitigations for gas pipeline risk, military communications networks, and protection against flooding of coastal regions. The presentation is for all Excel users who make decisions under uncertainty, so bring your laptop. No statistical background is assumed, but for those with extensive training in the area, this session should repair the damage. We encourage all participants to download some of the companion models to our presentation in advance available here: https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/models. We also encourage you to see our public article in ORMS Today titled, Probability Management: Rolling up operational risk at PG&E, which can be downloaded here: https://www.informs.org/ORMS-Today/Public-Articles/December-Volume-43-Number-6/Probability-Management-Rolling-up-operational-risk-at-PG-E.