Principal Analyst at Innovative Decisions, Inc.
Shaun Doheney is a Principal Analyst at Innovative Decisions, Inc. and the Chair of Resources and Readiness Applications at ProbabilityManagement.org – a nonprofit devoted to the communication and calculation of uncertainty. He holds a B.S. in Mathematics, an M.S. in Operations Analysis, and a Graduate Certificate in Data Analytics. As a Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) and Marine Operations Research Analyst, he performed qualitative and quantitative analyses and evaluations across major DoD decision support processes. His past projects featured optimization, multiple-objective decision analysis, quantitative risk analysis, discrete event simulation, and survey design and analysis. He has applied these techniques to force development system processes; wargaming; concept-based assessment; capabilities-based assessment; operational risk analysis; cost-benefit analysis; manpower and human resource development processes; and assignment and schedule optimization. His more recent efforts have focused on guiding adoption of analytic methods and optimizing allocation of resources across operational scenarios to inform portfolio funding decisions over a multi-year horizon.
Tuesday, April 16, 1:50–2:40pm
A Modeling Framework for Scenario-Based Portfolio Planning with Uncertainty
In order to get the most warfighting capability out of a limited operating budget, the military must make analytically defendable cost-benefit tradeoffs between various programs. To do so, military planners generally use a capabilities-based assessment (CBA) process. While this process varies by Service within the Department of Defense, the process usually begins with the examination of strategic and operational guidance, followed by the execution of numerous studies, wargames, and field experiments. This analysis leads to the identification of capabilities required by the military to execute its responsibilities across a range of military operations. As a part of this CBA process, each Service conducts enterprise-wide risk analysis to compare the costs and benefits of various capability solutions in order to deliver a draft budget necessary to fund the development and sustainment of the best possible fighting force. The development of a draft budget is a complex problem fraught with difficult-to-measure quantities, strong advocacy for existing programs, and political sensitivities. In this talk, we present an interactive modeling approach in which key assumptions may be adjusted by diverse stakeholders to create a conversation. This is accomplished through a SIPmath simulation in native Excel, in which thousands of Monte Carlo trials are run per keystroke without the need for external simulation software. The model showcases a number of analytical features that we have found useful in many contexts, and which can be re-assembled in numerous ways, such as: Scenario-based portfolio planning; SIPmath interactive simulation using the Excel Data Table; S-Curve models of effectiveness; Animated graphical displays; and Potential of rolling up results from lower level models or to higher level models. Our modeling framework offers traceable, defendable linkages between the various mandated products of the CBA process, and the draft budget developed and submitted by the Service.