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Calvin Bradshaw

Calvin Bradshaw

Calvin Bradshaw

Senior Operations Research Analyst at Air Force Material Command

Award-winning, published, dedicated professional whose 25 years of experience includes proven leadership and problem solving acumen ranging from synthesizing complex military intelligence to leading technical teams at various Department of Defense and private sector organizations. Served 20 years in the United States Air Force as an officer with extensive background in complex problem solving, cyberspace analysis, multi-billion dollar portfolio risk assessment analysis, executive-level consultation and group dynamic facilitation. Expertise expands globally to include key participation in projects located in the Pacific and the Middle East. Notable credentials include Six-Sigma Black Belt, Test & Evaluation, Systems Engineering and Project Management certifications. Academic background includes a BS in mathematics from Bethune-Cookman University, a MS in Engineering Management from Old Dominion University, MS in Operations Research from the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) and currently is a PhD candidate at AFIT. PhD dissertation involves using manpower to assess strategic risk. Planning to graduate in June of 2019. Held 15 different leadership assignments over the past 20 years. Analytical interests include principal component analysis, workload demand forecasting, data envelopment analysis, logistic regression, generalized linear modeling, nonparametric statistics, multi-variate analysis, time series forecasting, disparate data linking, senior decision maker consultation and risk assessment modeling.

Track: Risk Management & Predictive Analytics

Monday, April 15, 11:30am–12:20pm

Improving Traceability to US Air Force Capability Assessments

Issue: All US Air Force (USAF) resources planned are not programmed (i.e. resource allocated and budgeted); the delta between the two translate into capability gaps and a level of strategic risk. With limited personnel resource funding availability, senior decision makers need to be able to objectively articulate personnel capability gaps, assess risk and prioritize funding.

Background: An enterprise responsible for 60% of the USAF portfolio manages five distinctive core capabilities. A task library database was created to link enterprise core capabilities to Program Element Codes (PECs). Although the PECs are linked to tasks, the amount of specific personnel (by career field) needed to accomplish the tasks versus personnel funded requirements are not connected. This makes it difficult for capability experts to defend their inputs to annual funding assessments.

Question: Is there a way to link Enterprises to Core Capabilities to Tasks to PECs to Career Fields?

Methodology: For the first time, a linkage between enterprises, core capabilities, PECs, tasks and manpower has been developed. We now can provide an objective nomenclatured way to compute risk. The classic approach to calculate risk is to combine the likelihood of failure and associated consequence of a given outcome. An enterprise personnel baseline capability demonstration study is conducted examining over 275 career fields using binomial and sigmoid functions.

Insights: The linkage of Enterprises to Core Capabilities to Tasks to PECs to Career Fields allows senior planners and programmers to assess personnel capability by specific expertise and funding levels. This allows enterprise staff and capability experts to develop objective, defensible core capability assessments.

Application: This analysis can be used as an objective way to compute risk and prioritize personnel resource allocation at the enterprise level. Understanding potential personnel shortfalls at the career field level should better inform core capability analysis, and thus increase credibility and defensibility of strategic risk assessments.